Probability > Base Rates and the Base Rate Fallacy. The base rate for being struck by lightning: about 1 in 12,000. The term “base rates” has a slightly different meaning depending on where you use it. In general, a base rate is the probability of some event happening. For example, your odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime is BASE-RATE FALLACY: "If you overlook the base-rate information that 90% and then 10% of a population consist of lawyers and engineers, respectively, you would form the base-rate fallacy that someone who enjoys physics in school would probably be categorized as an engineer rather than a lawyer. Easy Definition of Base Rate Fallacy: Don't think "99% accurate" means a 1% failure rate.There's far more to think about before you can work out the failure rate. This idea is linked to the Base Rate Fallacy. The Base Rate Fallacy. Taxonomy: Logical Fallacy > Formal Fallacy > Probabilistic Fallacy > The Base Rate Fallacy Alias: Neglecting Base Rates 1 Thought Experiment: Suppose that the rate of disease D is three times higher among homosexuals than among heterosexuals, that is, the percentage of homosexuals who have D is three times the percentage of heterosexuals who have it. However, base rate fallacy occurs because people tend to ignore all of this relevant base rate information and instead rely on mental shortcuts, such as the idea that a car accident occurs when we Base Rate Fallacy. A base rate fallacy is committed when a person judges that an outcome will occur without considering prior knowledge of the probability that it will occur. They focus on other information that isn't relevant instead. Imagine that I show you a bag of 250 M&Ms with equal numbers of 5 different colors. Base Rate Fallacy Definition Imagine that you meet Tom one evening at a party. He is somewhat shy and reserved, is very analytical, and enjoys reading science fiction novels. What is the likelihood that Tom works as a computer scientist? The answer depends on both the knowledge you have about Tom and the number of […]

## 20 May 1999 The Base-Rate Fallacy and its Implications for the. Difficulty of Intrusion Detection . Stefan Axelsson. Department of Computer Engineering.

10 Jul 2006 To know if mass surveillance will work, Bayes' theorem requires three estimations : The base-rate for terrorists, i.e. what proportion of the Tversky and Kahneman (1974) described an effect they called. 'insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes', better known as base rate neglect (Bar-Hillel, 1980 ) 11 Jun 2014 1.3 Drunk Driving。 2 Base Rate Fallacy。 3 Base Rate Fallacy Examples。 4 Bayes theorem 17 Mar 2019 The base rate fallacy or why antiviruses, antispam filters and detection probes work worse than what is actually promised. ElevenPaths 17

### Chapter 2. Base-rate neglect. Gordon Pennycook and Valerie A. Thompson. The “base-rate” refers to the a-priori probability of an event or outcome. For example

9 Sep 2009 We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical, normative, and methodological standpoint. First Base-rate fallacy refers to the human tendency to neglect more valid (statistically based) base-rate information in favor of more colorful case-specific information 25 Jan 2016 According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound A base rate fallacy is committed when a person judges that an outcome will occur without considering prior knowledge of the probability that it will occur. They 10 Jul 2006 To know if mass surveillance will work, Bayes' theorem requires three estimations : The base-rate for terrorists, i.e. what proportion of the Tversky and Kahneman (1974) described an effect they called. 'insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes', better known as base rate neglect (Bar-Hillel, 1980 ) 11 Jun 2014 1.3 Drunk Driving。 2 Base Rate Fallacy。 3 Base Rate Fallacy Examples。 4 Bayes theorem